I took a clip that was 11 seconds and 24 frames (11:24) long (PAL system) and progressively trimmed one frame off the end. With trims at 11:23 down to 11:12, the jump occurred at 10:11, while for trims at 11:11 to 11:00 (as far as I tested), the jump occurred at 9:23. The location of the jump is presumably related to the last I-frame (picture) before the end.
If I turn off smart rendering, no jump occurs.
I placed a text subtitle near the start of the clip, forcing a non-smart render at that point, and no jump occurred towards the end.
Has anybody else noticed this effect? If not, would anyone try to reproduce it?